Area Trend Score (reference, out of 100)

A reference value computed mechanically by combining past and current public data (net migration, price change, hazards, the location optimization plan, and the gap from official land prices). It does not predict or guarantee future prices or demand. The "Higher / Middle / Lower" categories are not a judgment of good or bad. For towns with few transactions the price change is shrunk toward the city/ward value, and net migration is a city/ward value shared by all towns in the same city/ward.

Area Trend Score = 100 − (rank of net out-migration × 20% + rank of low price change × 20% + hazard × 25% + outside the residential inducement zone × 15% + rank of land transaction price above the official land price × 20%)

Net migration (20%, city/ward value): rank among Greater Tokyo cities/wards of the average net in-migration over the last 3 years divided by the 2020 census population.

Price change (20%): rank of the ratio of median prices per ㎡ in the latest 2 years vs. the 2 years three years earlier (computed per property type and combined). The fewer the transactions, the more the estimate is shrunk toward the city/ward value.

Hazard (25%, town value): reflects the hazard "safety score" (out of 100).

The share of foreign residents (city/ward value) is no longer used in the score since October 2026, as there is little basis for treating it as a proxy for demand.

Categories: 67 or more = Higher, 34–66 = Middle, 33 or less = Lower (not a forecast of future prices or demand).

*The former "caution" note was discontinued in October 2026 because the underlying population and price estimates were incorrect.